Edmunds Forecasts Strongest Q3 New Vehicle Sales Since 2019
Despite tariff pressures, Edmunds analysts say Q3 sales got a late-quarter boost from the Fed rate cut and expiring EV tax credits, forecasting a SAAR of 16.2M for September
Santa Monica, Calif., Sept. 26, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The car shopping experts from Edmunds forecast that 4,075,132 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in the third quarter of 2025, which will be a 4.7% increase from the third quarter of 2024 but a 3.3% decrease compared to the second quarter of 2025.
“Despite concerns that tariffs would put serious pressure on new vehicle sales, the third quarter held up surprisingly well,” said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds' head of insights. “We haven’t seen prices jump dramatically for consumers since automakers are doing what they can behind the scenes to offset those added costs.”
Caldwell notes that September sales were given an assist by the recent Fed rate cut, which helped boost the buying mood for consumers, as well as the expiration of the EV tax credit.
“We're seeing more consumers return to the market with aging trade-ins, which is a strong signal that there’s still real pent-up demand. People may have waited on the sidelines, but now they’re coming back — tariffs or not,” said Caldwell.
Ivan Drury, Edmunds’ director of insights, said the end of the EV tax credit will reshape the market through the rest of the year.
“The end of the tax credit created a rush in September, but it could also trigger an EV hangover in the months ahead,” said Drury. “EVs currently make up roughly one in every 22 vehicles on dealer lots, and without that incentive in place, dealers and automakers may need to get creative to keep those vehicles moving.”
Drury added that the model-year transition will also influence sales trends through the rest of the year.
“Inventory for 2026 models now makes up just over a third of what consumers will find on dealer lots,” said Drury. “There’s still time to shop 2025 models, but the clock is ticking as dealers make room for the new model year — and those prior model year vehicles could move quickly with tariff concerns still on shoppers’ minds.”
SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
| SALES VOLUME | 2025 Q3 Forecast | 2024 Q3 Sales | 2025 Q2 Sales | Change from 2024 Q3 | Change from 2025 Q2 |
| GM | 710,824 | 659,780 | 746,756 | 7.7% | -4.8% |
| Toyota | 635,390 | 542,957 | 666,477 | 17.0% | -4.7% |
| Ford | 544,530 | 504,047 | 612,126 | 8.0% | -11.0% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 483,810 | 429,361 | 473,283 | 12.7% | 2.2% |
| Honda | 366,751 | 366,214 | 387,574 | 0.1% | -5.4% |
| Stellantis | 305,912 | 306,925 | 310,760 | -0.3% | -1.6% |
| Nissan | 225,108 | 212,068 | 222,210 | 6.1% | 1.3% |
| Industry | 4,075,132 | 3,892,304 | 4,212,596 | 4.7% | -3.3% |
MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
| Market Share | 2025 Q3 Forecast | 2024 Q3 Sales | 2025 Q2 Sales | Change from 2024 Q3 | Change from 2025 Q2 |
| GM | 17.4% | 17.0% | 17.7% | 2.9% | -1.6% |
| Toyota | 15.6% | 13.9% | 15.8% | 11.8% | -1.4% |
| Ford | 13.4% | 12.9% | 14.5% | 3.2% | -8.0% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 11.9% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 7.6% | 5.7% |
| Honda | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.2% | -4.3% | -2.2% |
| Stellantis | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.4% | -4.8% | 1.8% |
| Nissan | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 1.4% | 4.7% |
About Edmunds
Edmunds guides car shoppers online from research to purchase. With in-depth reviews of every new vehicle, shopping tips from an in-house team of experts, plus a wealth of consumer and automotive market insights, Edmunds helps millions of shoppers each month select, price and buy a car with confidence. Regarded as one of America's best workplaces by Fortune, Great Place to Work and Built In, Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California. Follow us on TikTok, Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.
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Talia James-Armand Edmunds 310-491-8738 pr@edmunds.com
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