AGP Executive Report

Oil Market Shift: Kuwait Petroleum Corp. has started offering crude directly to Asian refiners for the first time since the 1990-91 Gulf War, a move aimed at gaining market share as regional conflict disrupts exports and forces buyers to re-route supplies. Shipping in “Dark Mode”: Bloomberg data cited by OilPrice.com says Kuwait’s LPG carrier switched off AIS and used ship-to-ship transfers as Hormuz risk rises; the same opaque pattern is spreading across the Gulf, with traffic through Hormuz down sharply versus pre-war levels. Iraq Energy & Security Link: Jordan’s PM told Iraq’s parliament speaker that Iraq’s security is a pillar of Jordan’s stability, warning Amman is increasingly concerned about non-state armed activity and cross-border airspace threats. Iraq-US-Iran Diplomacy: Iranian semi-official reporting says ballistic missile and support-for-armed-groups items were removed from the draft US-Iran MoU, while the US and Iran trade cautious signals on compensation, frozen assets, and sanctions relief. Regional Business Angle: SalamAir says it is pulling back from parts of the western Gulf, including Iraq, due to profitability pressures and conflict-driven route constraints, while adding destinations like Damascus and Beirut.

Iraq–Jordan Security Ties: Jordan’s PM Jaafar Hassan met Iraq’s Parliament Speaker Halbousi, stressing that Iraq’s security is a pillar of Jordan’s stability as both sides focus on cross-border threats from non-state armed groups and airspace risks. Iraq’s Militia Integration Push: Iraq’s new PM Ali al-Zaidi outlined plans to integrate Iranian-backed PMF factions into state institutions, a move welcomed by the US as part of broader sovereignty and disarmament efforts amid recent regional attacks. World Bank Growth Warning for the Region: The World Bank cut its global growth outlook to 2.5% for 2026, warning energy disruptions could drag growth to 1.3% if market stress worsens, with Iraq among the Middle East economies hit hardest. Iraq Energy Pressure from Hormuz Risk: With Strait of Hormuz disruptions still shaping oil and fuel flows, coverage highlights how Iraq faces mounting fiscal strain and operational stress in its energy sector as export routes and revenues remain vulnerable. Kurdistan Youth Investment: In Erbil, Masrour Barzani inaugurated Kurdistan’s largest youth center, aiming to boost skills, entrepreneurship, and innovation with a modern facility already drawing 1,400 members in its pilot phase.

Iraq Currency Watch: The Iraqi dinar weakened slightly as the dollar rose in Baghdad and Erbil, with the exchange rate reaching about 1,557.5 dinars per $1 in Baghdad, reflecting ongoing pressure on local FX markets. Regional Security & Diplomacy: Iraq condemned attacks on Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait after renewed Iran-U.S. strikes, warning the region could slide into broader confrontation; separately, Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi urged Syria’s President Ahmed al-Sharaa to deepen security and economic coordination. Oil & Trade Risks: The World Bank cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5%, warning of a drop to 1.3% if Middle East energy disruptions worsen—an outlook that directly hits Iraq and other energy exporters. Logistics for Iraq’s Supply Chains: Aqaba ports reported 38% growth in handled cargo volume in early 2026, citing rising transit shipments bound for Iraq and improved port efficiency. Finance & Derivatives: Fitch said volatility from the Iran war is boosting demand for Islamic derivatives for risk management, but adoption remains uneven across Islamic finance sectors. Business-Adjacent Headlines: A CNN report alleged Israeli special forces operated from Azerbaijan, UAE, Iraq and Somaliland during the Iran conflict, while Iraq’s foreign ministry reiterated calls for dialogue over escalation.

Iraq’s Security Push: Iraq urged an end to regional escalation, calling for dialogue and stressing that weapons must remain under state control as conflicts threaten energy security and global trade. Jordan–Baghdad Security Ties: Jordan’s PM told Iraq’s parliament speaker that Iraq’s security is a pillar of Jordan’s stability, warning that non-state armed activity inside Iraq is a key concern. World Cup Meets Politics: As the 48-team World Cup kicks off, Iraq-linked visa and entry problems are highlighted, including an Iraqi striker reportedly held for hours in the US and a photographer denied entry. Iran War Hits Oil Flows: OPEC output fell to the lowest since 2000 in May, with Reuters citing US blockade pressure on Iran and Strait of Hormuz disruptions; Iraq’s supply rose via higher domestic use. Finance for Reconstruction: JPMorgan says it has deployed over $20bn into the Gulf since the Iran war began, expecting major postwar infrastructure and diversification spending. US Sanctions Network: The US Treasury sanctioned entities supporting IRGC weapons procurement, targeting foreign procurement and shadow banking channels.

Iraq Security & State Control: Baghdad set an end-of-September deadline for disarming Iran-backed armed groups as the US-led ISIS coalition mission winds down, linking weapons under state authority to defense and economic cooperation; some factions back the move while others tie disarmament to foreign troop timelines. World Bank & Iraq Reform: The World Bank renewed support for Iraq’s financial and economic reform push, offering technical help for budget planning, fiscal sustainability, and upgrades to banking, tax, and customs systems. KRG-Baghdad Coordination: Erbil urged a high-level joint committee with Baghdad to resolve outstanding issues, highlighting ASYCUDA border systems as a key sticking point. Iraq Economy & Currency: A Coordination Framework-linked consensus backs Prime Minister Ali Falih al-Zaidi’s $83B-debt-focused reform plan, including a shift in the official US dollar exchange rate and steps to curb public-sector graft. Trade Routes & Energy Pressure: With Hormuz disruption reshaping logistics, Saudi and Türkiye signed rail and logistics agreements to revive the Hejaz Railway as an overland alternative; Iraq is mentioned as a potential later participant. Business & Mobility: Yango Play launched in Iraq via partnership with 1001, expanding local digital entertainment access. World Cup Business Pulse: GulfTalent says most Middle East professionals plan to watch World Cup matches, prompting companies to adjust work rules during late-night games.

Iraq–UK Banking Talks: A high-level Iraqi banking delegation wrapped a two-day London visit to deepen financial cooperation, with meetings involving the Central Bank of Iraq, private banks, UK officials and Hogan Lovells, aiming to plug Iraqi private banks into the global system. Security & Crime Cooperation: Iraq’s Council of Ministers approved a pact with Spain to coordinate on security and transnational crime, building on Madrid’s training role for Iraqi counterterrorism units. Arms Under State Control: Iraq’s push to confine weapons to the state faces pushback as an Iran-aligned faction leader rejected any understandings with “international forces backing Israel,” signaling continued political friction over militia arms. Regional Energy Shock: Gulf conflict disruption is being framed as a whole-economy blow, with Strait of Hormuz risks hitting shipping, food inputs and industrial supply chains—an issue that directly matters for Iraq’s trade and fuel stability. Iraq–Jordan Energy Links: Jordan and Iraq discussed advancing the Basra–Aqaba oil pipeline and broader energy cooperation amid Hormuz disruption. Amnesty Update: Iraq released former Nineveh governor Nawfal Al-Aakoub under the General Amnesty Law, following detention tied to corruption and public fund waste cases. Maritime Incident: A US missile strike near Oman triggered a rescue of 24 Indian crew on the MT Marivex, previously sanctioned for alleged Iranian oil blockade violations—raising safety concerns for regional shipping.

Iraq-US diplomacy: Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi is set to travel to Washington to seek Trump administration support as Baghdad pushes to rein in armed factions and attract investment, amid losses tied to the Strait of Hormuz disruption and renewed militia pressure. Armed-faction integration: Analysts say Iraq’s new government faces a hard test in bringing Popular Mobilization Forces groups under state control, with some factions signaling integration while Iran-aligned units resist. Oil and trade shock: The Strait of Hormuz closure is draining global inventories fast; the U.S. EIA warns OECD stockpiles are heading to the lowest levels since 2003, with prices likely to stay volatile until shipping normalizes. Regional logistics: Turkey and Saudi Arabia signed rail and logistics cooperation deals aimed at building overland trade corridors that could reduce reliance on Gulf chokepoints—relevant for Iraq’s export rerouting plans. World Cup spillover: Iran’s federation claims FIFA revoked ticket allocations for Iranian fans in the U.S., adding to travel and entry friction affecting Iraq-linked sports personnel.

Iraq’s Airspace Reopens: Iraq lifted a 72-hour airspace closure and resumed flights after Iran said it was ending military actions against Israel, with authorities saying they’ll keep monitoring regional risks. Anti-Corruption Crackdown: Iraq’s Communications Minister Mustafa Sanad said the government stopped a planned transfer of 116 billion Iraqi dinars (about $88.5m) to Dubai, with the case expected to move to the Integrity Commission and courts. Oil & Power Pressure: With Hormuz-linked tensions still rattling energy flows, Iraq faces warnings it could halt public salaries if the Strait stays closed, while analysts say decades of instability and dependence on imported Iranian gas have left the power sector fragile. Regional Business Links: Jordan’s PM stressed that Iraq’s security is tied to Jordan’s stability, highlighting concern over armed groups operating across borders—an issue that can directly affect trade, logistics, and investment confidence. Tech in Energy: Iraq’s Ministry of Oil is mentioned alongside a China-Iraq lab tied to oilfield tech and CCUS, reflecting how regional energy players are pushing modernization even as conflict disrupts markets.

Iraq–Jordan Security Ties: Jordan’s PM Jaafar Hassan told Iraqi Parliament Speaker Heibat al-Halbousi that Iraq’s security is a pillar of Jordan’s own stability, warning that drones and non-state armed groups operating from Iraqi territory are driving urgent border and airspace concerns. Kurdistan Budget Standoff: Iraq’s deputy speaker Adnan Faihan urged Baghdad to halt transfers to the Kurdistan Regional Government until a full settlement on outstanding non-oil revenues, citing disputes over monthly payments and compliance with budget law. Oil & Transit Cooperation: Jordan’s Senate speaker and Iraq’s parliament speaker backed extending an Iraqi oil pipeline through Jordan, framing it as a mutual economic benefit and a strategic partnership. CBI/Finance Watch: Reports say Iraq’s central bank has been printing large amounts of dinars to cover state spending, while parliament rules out the 2026 budget amid revelations tied to currency printing. Energy Shock From Hormuz Risk: With renewed Iran–Israel tensions, markets are again focused on Strait of Hormuz disruption and the knock-on effects for shipping costs and regional energy routes. World Cup Travel Friction for Iraqis: Iraqi fans face visa hurdles for the 2026 tournament after the US suspended routine consular services in Iraq, forcing travel to neighboring countries for in-person interviews. Infrastructure & Investment Push: Iraq’s PM is set to visit Washington with business leaders to attract US investment, while Jordan and Iraq also discussed broader economic cooperation.

Iraq Economy: Iraq’s imports fell sharply in 2025, dropping to about $51.1bn from $87.4bn in 2024, with analysts pointing to tighter Central Bank of Iraq financial compliance and weaker oil prices. Oil & Trade: US crude imports from Iraq resumed at 43,000 bpd last week after a prior week with no imports, keeping Iraq among the top US suppliers. Regional Security: Jordan’s PM told Iraq’s parliament speaker that Iraq’s security is a pillar of Jordan’s stability, warning that non-state armed groups operating from inside Iraq remain a key concern. Airspace & Disruption: Iraq shut national airspace for 72 hours as the Israel-Iran crisis escalated, adding pressure on travel and logistics. Energy Risk: With the Strait of Hormuz under strain, analysts warn freight and oil trade disruptions could deepen, raising costs across the region. Business Links: Iraq’s Kurdistan leadership met Turkey and Greece officials to discuss expanding trade and investment ties, including tourism and healthcare.

Iraq Oil & Investment: Iraq’s new oil minister says Baghdad will offer better terms for foreign firms and push oil and gas development beyond traditional producing areas, aiming to boost output, cut flaring, and improve infrastructure for exports. Central Banking & Currency: Iraq’s Central Bank denied “printing money,” saying it used treasury bill discounts for short-term liquidity after oil revenue collapse tied to Strait of Hormuz disruptions; separate reports say the money supply rose sharply to fund state spending. Fiscal Pressure: Iraq’s economy is under strain as oil exports plunge and the government leans on rapid dinar issuance to avoid payroll shocks. Anti-Corruption: Iraq’s Federal Integrity Commission flagged violations in a 4-billion-dinar Kirkuk roads project, arresting the project’s lead engineer and referring the case to court. Parliamentary Immunity: Iraq’s judiciary moved to strip an MP’s immunity over alleged $500,000 extortion tied to a residential real estate development, marking a second similar move in a week. Regional Energy Context: OPEC+ approved another July output increase, including Iraq’s share, as oil markets react to the Iran war and Hormuz-related supply risks. Infrastructure & Trade Links: Iraq confirmed ground equipment delivery for Nasiriyah International Airport ahead of opening, with plans to support tourism and freight, while Baghdad also pushes investment and private-sector ties via upcoming regional and international engagement.

Oil & Trade Shock: OPEC+ is set to meet as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut, with analysts warning any quota hikes won’t quickly fix prices after the Iran war choked Gulf crude shipments. Iraq Fiscal Pressure: Iraq printed 25 trillion dinars to shore up finances as oil revenues fall, with officials warning continued Hormuz disruption could trigger a “financial disaster” and threaten salary payments. Non-Oil Revenue Push: Iraq plans to raise non-oil revenues to 46% under an “Iraq 2035” agenda aimed at diversifying the economy and stabilizing budgets. Infrastructure Investment: The World Bank approved $900 million to upgrade Iraq’s road network, targeting safer transport corridors and jobs. Baghdad vs Erbil Money & Trade: Erbil and Baghdad are set for renewed talks over financial disputes, including ASYCUDA customs implementation and a dollar access/embargo dispute affecting Kurdistan traders. Anti-Corruption Drive: Analysis highlights the tough work facing PM Ali Al Zaidi in curbing corruption while balancing US demands and ties with Iran. Oil Export Claims: Iraq’s Oil Ministry denies US forces detained tankers over alleged payments to Iran for Hormuz transit. Business & Banking: The PM says business leaders and private banks will join an upcoming US visit, and Baghdad plans a development fund backed by a $10bn Central Bank contribution. Health Sector: Iraq will add a clause in the 2027 budget to appoint contract resident doctors and raise salaries after protests.

Kurdistan–Baghdad Talks: A KRG delegation led by Omed Sabah is set to visit Baghdad within 48 hours to discuss financial disputes, including ASYCUDA customs implementation and the dollar access squeeze on Kurdish traders. Oil Export Claims: Iraq’s National Security Advisor Qasim al-Araji and the government denied reports that Iraq pays Iran transit fees for Hormuz passage, stressing exports move via internationally recognized routes and warning against unverified claims. Militia Disarmament: US and Western officials welcomed Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Kataeb Imam Ali moves to hand weapons to state control, framing it as a step toward stronger Iraqi sovereignty. Safety Crackdown: Iraq’s civil defense says it closed about 11,000 buildings over the past year for fire and construction violations, with Anbar leading the closures. Legal Push for Reparations: Economist Nasser Al-Kinani urged Iraq to rejoin the ICC to pursue an estimated $5 trillion in 2003-invasion damages. Business & Telecom: Zain highlighted sustainability integration in its strategy, while Korek Telecom faced shutdown steps after a contract dispute.

World Bank Funding: The World Bank approved a $900m project to upgrade Iraq’s road infrastructure, aiming to strengthen transport corridors, cut travel times, improve safety, and boost trade and access to services across regions including Baghdad, Kurdistan, and border routes with Jordan, Syria, and Türkiye. Energy & Power Shortages: With Iraq’s grid still unreliable and summer blackouts looming, families are increasingly looking at rooftop solar as a practical hedge against generator costs and outages. Kurdistan-Türkiye Talks: Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani met Turkey’s ambassador to Iraq to discuss security, internal political disputes in the region, and ways to deepen economic and trade cooperation, including the need for better Erbil-Baghdad dialogue. Iraq Currency Reality: A new report highlights why Iraqis and others under currency pressure increasingly turn to the US dollar when local money loses purchasing power and confidence. Regional Security Pressure: As Iran-U.S. tensions persist, an Iranian official says a potential deal depends on releasing $24bn in frozen Iranian assets, underscoring how finance and sanctions remain central to regional business risk. Maritime Risk: Multiple reports point to heightened shipping and port security concerns around Iraq amid projectile incidents and wider Gulf instability.

World Bank Infrastructure Push: The World Bank approved a $900m package to upgrade Iraq and Kurdistan road networks, targeting key corridors linking Baghdad to Turkey (E1) and Syria/Jordan (E2) to cut transport bottlenecks and improve safety; roads carry over 90% of Iraq’s transport volume but many are in moderate-to-poor condition, with about 7.9m people expected to benefit. Oil & Trade Pressure: Iraq’s crude exports averaged about 329,000 bpd in May, with Hormuz-linked shipments still constrained and volumes partly offset via the Kurdistan-Ceyhan pipeline, leaving revenues around $1bn and exports far below pre-crisis levels. Fuel Shortage Crackdown: Iraq’s Integrity Commission deployed field teams to monitor gasoline distribution at Baghdad filling stations and curb smuggling/manipulation, checking deliveries versus sales and focusing on both regular and premium supply flows. Regional Security Alerts: The U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem reiterated Level 4 travel cautions for Iraq and neighboring states amid “high tensions,” urging Americans to monitor local media and know shelter locations. Maritime Blockade Workarounds: Reports say Iran is increasingly using Iraq’s Umm Qasr port as a logistics hub to route cargo toward Iran while the U.S. blockade tightens.

Iraq’s State Arms Push: An influential Shiite militia, Saraya al-Salam, handed weapons to the Iraqi Army in Samarra as Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi drives a wider plan to bring armed groups under state control, though other factions remain resistant. Kurdistan Oil Operations: Iraq ordered Kurdistan oil companies to resume operations, with officials also pointing to efforts to restart exports and keep supply moving amid regional disruption. Gasoline Pressure in Baghdad: A reported gasoline shortage has revived Iraq’s black market, highlighting how supply disruptions and foreign firm pullouts can quickly hit household costs. Anti-Corruption Clampdown: Iraq’s anti-corruption drive intensified after the arrest of a deputy oil minister over allegations tied to large sums of cash, gold, and weapons. Parliament Formation Update: Iraq’s Coordination Framework is pushing for an extraordinary parliamentary session to complete cabinet voting on remaining vacant posts, including key security ministries. Business & Markets: ShaMaran Petroleum announced its first day of trading on Euronext Growth Oslo, underscoring continued investor interest in Kurdistan-linked energy assets. Travel Risk Alert: The U.S. issued updated security advisories for Iraq and the wider Middle East as Iran-linked tensions keep volatility high.