AGP Executive Report

Hormuz Shockwaves: Oil markets are still jittery as the Strait of Hormuz disruption drags on, with the IEA warning inventories are being depleted fast and only a few weeks of buffer remain—raising the odds of more price swings into peak summer demand. Iraq Trade Snapshot: Iraq posted a $24.7bn trade surplus for 2025, with exports ($90.43bn) outpacing imports ($65.74bn), though the numbers still underline how tightly Iraq’s balance depends on oil flows. Gulf Security Flashpoints: A drone attack near the UAE’s Barakah nuclear plant sparked fresh escalation fears, while Iran claims strikes in northern Iraq and Israel reports covert bases in the Iraqi desert—keeping the region on edge. Iraq Development Push: Iraq and UNDP signed a deal to back investment and infrastructure, targeting education, water resilience, agriculture value chains, and private-sector participation. Local Economy Pressure: More than 5,000 unemployed graduates marched in central Baghdad demanding public-sector jobs, highlighting how reform plans collide with hiring limits.

Strait of Hormuz shock hits Iraq’s oil lifeline: Major shipping lines say they’ve found partial workarounds as the corridor stays effectively constrained, but land routes can’t replace sea capacity—trade flows to the Persian Gulf are down sharply. Oil prices jump on Iran risk: Brent pushed above $111 and WTI rose as Trump weighs renewed military options and Iran warns the Gulf of Oman could become a “graveyard” for US ships. Iraq exports fall hard: Iraq’s new oil minister says April exports via Hormuz were just 10 million barrels, with tankers staying away over insurance; Baghdad is pushing to lift exports via the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline and talks with Ankara. Baghdad turns to revenue: Iraq’s finance minister urges maximizing non-oil income as oil receipts slide. Security and politics at home: Iraq’s new PM Ali al-Zaidi faces fresh conflict-of-interest allegations, while Al-Kadhimiya’s Imam al-Jawad commemoration drew millions with a “weapons-free city” plan. Regional spillover: A drone fire near the UAE’s Barakah nuclear plant adds to supply fears.

UAE-Iran Tensions Spike: A drone strike started a fire near Abu Dhabi’s Barakah nuclear plant, hitting an electrical generator outside the facility’s inner perimeter; authorities say there was no radiation impact and investigations are ongoing. Baghdad Pilgrimage Logistics: Iraq moved 4.06M+ pilgrims through Al-Kadhimiya for Imam Al-Jawad’s commemoration, with a “weapons-free city” plan and no major security incidents reported. Iraq Politics Under Scrutiny: A former MP filed a conflict-of-interest complaint against Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi and Electricity Minister Ali Saadi Wahib, demanding financial disclosures. Power Crunch Focus: Iraq’s new electricity minister vowed to end decades-long shortages on day one. Hormuz Pressure on Trade: With Hormuz risk rising, Gulf transit is shifting toward pipelines and rail, while Iraq’s oil exports through Hormuz reportedly fell to about 10M barrels in April. US-Iran Brinkmanship: Trump warned Iran the “clock is ticking” as talks hang in the balance.

Iraq’s new government takes shape: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has formally taken office and moved fast—appointing an acting interior minister to keep the ministry running while coalition talks drag on, and chairing the first Financial Stability Council meeting hours after launching it, with a push for tighter fiscal discipline, anti-money laundering steps, and non-oil revenue growth. Security and regional pressure: Baghdad is under mounting US-Iran pressure as it tries to complete a partial cabinet and manage the militia question. Digital crackdown: Iraq’s Communications and Media Commission urged TikTok to comply with Iraqi law and tackle alleged money-laundering-linked accounts. Trade and energy squeeze: Iran exported about $148M in goods to Iraq via Kermanshah crossings in March-April, while Iraq’s oil exports through Hormuz plunged—down to 10 million barrels in April—as tanker insurance and war risks choke shipments; Baghdad is leaning on the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline and talks with Ankara to raise export capacity. Language policy in Erbil: Erbil ordered commercial signs to include Kurdish writing, aiming to curb the spread of foreign-language signage.

Power Transfer & Reform Drive: Iraq has officially handed power to new PM Ali al-Zaidi, who immediately pledged a “comprehensive” economic reform plan and a tougher anti-corruption push after parliament approved 14 of 23 minister posts. Oil Shock from Hormuz: Iraq’s oil minister Basim Mohammed Khudair says exports via the Strait of Hormuz collapsed to 10 million barrels in April (from ~93 million monthly pre-war), blaming war-linked disruption and tanker insurance. Route Shift to Turkey: Baghdad says Kirkuk crude is now moving through the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline, exporting about 200,000 bpd with a plan to raise it to 500,000 bpd, while talks with Ankara and US firms (including Chevron and ExxonMobil) aim to expand capacity. Regional Security Pressure: The wider Iran conflict keeps oil markets jumpy, with prices up more than 3% as US-Iran rhetoric dents hopes for a Hormuz deal. Global Spillover: A Suezmax tanker carrying Iraqi crude has been seen approaching India after Hormuz transit, underscoring how limited, risky crossings are still happening.

Militia Terror Charges: U.S. prosecutors unsealed charges against an Iran-backed Iraqi militia commander, Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood al-Saadi, alleging he plotted nearly 20 attacks across Europe and Canada and coordinated plans targeting U.S. and Jewish sites, including a synagogue in New York. Humanitarian Aid: Ayatollah Al-Sistani’s Lebanon office says expanded relief has reached more than 74,000 displaced families, with cash and medical support mechanisms used during the crisis. Energy Shock in Iraq: An oil spill in Kirkuk’s irrigation canal is contaminating agricultural water, raising fears for crops, livestock, and long-term soil and health damage. Oil Prices & Hormuz Risk: Oil jumped more than 3% as U.S.-Iran tensions dent hopes for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, where about a fifth of global LNG and oil trade normally passes. Digital Football Push: Google’s Gemini is moving from sponsorship into fan experience for Iraq and Morocco’s national teams, aiming to make AI interactive rather than just promotional.

IMF Talks: Iraq has reportedly approached the IMF for emergency financing tied to the Iran war’s economic shock, with discussions ongoing on size and loan structure after spring meetings in Washington. Oil Under Pressure: To keep exports moving through the Strait of Hormuz risk zone, Iraq is cutting May crude prices by up to $33 a barrel, shifting shipment risk onto buyers via contracts that remove force majeure. Gulf Bypass Race: The UAE is fast-tracking a West–East pipeline to double export capacity via Fujairah by 2027, underlining how Hormuz disruptions are reshaping regional energy logistics. Politics at Home: Iran’s president congratulated Iraq’s new PM Ali al-Zaidi after parliament approved his government, while key cabinet posts remain in negotiation. Shipping Reality Check: Strait traffic stays thin, with only a handful of tankers successfully crossing amid heightened tensions.

IMF Warning: The IMF says the Iran war is pushing the global economy toward its “adverse scenario,” with growth sliding and inflation risks rising as Strait of Hormuz disruptions keep oil prices elevated. Iraq Politics: Iraq’s new PM Ali al-Zaidi was sworn in with a partial Cabinet after lawmakers deadlocked on key posts like interior and defense, while the government also faces fresh US pressure over weapons and non-state groups. Energy Pressure: Iraq is cutting oil prices sharply to keep exports moving despite Hormuz risk, shifting more shipment risk onto buyers. Shipping Signal: A Chinese supertanker carrying Iraqi crude reportedly cleared Hormuz as Trump and Xi pressed for the strait to stay open. Business Watch: The IMF also welcomed early Trump-Xi dialogue as a stabilizer for trade tensions, but warned the Middle East conflict is still weighing on the outlook.

Iraq Government Reset: Ali Al Zaidi was sworn in as Iraq’s prime minister after parliament endorsed his cabinet, ending months of deadlock and setting up a fresh push for stability—while Washington presses him to rein in Iran-backed militias. Kurdistan Justice: Nechirvan Barzani hailed Iraq’s Supreme Criminal Court death sentence for Ajaj Al-Tikriti over Anfal-era crimes, calling it a victory for justice. Hormuz Shockwave: Oil markets stayed jittery as Iran said it allowed some Chinese vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, while the US and China publicly backed keeping the strait open—yet shipping remains chaotic and prices react to every signal. Cost of Living: Iraq’s food prices rose in 2025, with wheat, rice, dates and red meat climbing, adding pressure on households. Basra Jobs Fight: Former FCC refinery workers continued protests in Basra demanding permanent oil jobs after being dismissed from the project.

Oil Exports Under Pressure: Iraq is trying to keep crude moving despite the Strait of Hormuz squeeze, with reports saying Basrah crude discounts of up to $33/bbl for May shipments and a push to boost Basrah exports via the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline to 140,000 bpd within two weeks. Energy Politics: Kurdish and Baghdad officials are framing Iraq’s next phase as turning “security burdens” into “strategic assets,” while a separate “two powers, one grid” theme highlights how Iran-linked gas and US-linked finance both shape Iraq’s leverage. Cabinet Countdown: Ahead of Ali al-Zaidi’s cabinet vote, blocs are still negotiating the politically explosive “restricting weapons” file, with Sadiqoon signaling participation depends on that outcome. Regional Shockwaves: Oil prices edged up near $106 as Trump–Xi talks in Beijing focus on whether Iran war peace efforts can restart, while Hormuz remains heavily restricted. Eni Update: Eni says 2025 output in Iraq rose to about 11m barrels of oil liquids and 30b cf of gas. Infrastructure Watch: Iraq’s Development Road design work is nearly complete, with the Grand Faw subsea tunnel reported at 95%.

Oil Market Pressure: Iraq is cutting crude prices by up to $33 a barrel for May shipments to keep exports moving as the Strait of Hormuz stays unstable, shifting risk to buyers via “free-on-board” terms and removing force majeure clauses. Regional Security Spillover: Saudi fighter jets reportedly struck Iran-linked militia targets in Iraq during the Iran war, with retaliatory strikes also launched from Kuwait—another reminder that Iraq is getting pulled deeper into Gulf conflict dynamics. Iraq Politics Next Step: Iraq’s parliament is set to vote Thursday on Prime Minister-designate Ali al-Zaidi’s cabinet lineup, a key test as the new government faces pressure over militias and foreign ties. Power & Trade Links: Jordan’s electricity exports to Iraq rose 13% in early 2026, while Iraq’s OPEC well-drilling activity placed it fourth in 2025, signaling momentum in upstream despite the wider shock.

Iran-US Talks & Hormuz: Iran is reviewing a U.S. 14-point peace proposal that would include a 10-year uranium enrichment ban and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Pakistan mediating and officials hinting a deal could come “sooner rather than later,” even as the U.S. keeps military pressure and threatens renewed strikes. Iraq Energy Fallout: Iraq is cutting oil prices sharply for May shipments—up to $33 a barrel—to keep exports moving through the risky corridor, while Baghdad also works to secure more Iran-approved transits after earlier safe passages. Regional Escalation: Kuwait accuses Iran of an attempted infiltration on Bubiyan Island tied to a China-backed port project, and Saudi Arabia reports unpublicized retaliatory strikes on Iranian soil—both raising the odds of renewed flare-ups. Markets & Costs: Oil prices swung hard on deal optimism, and the U.S. slightly lowered its 2026 Brent forecast, underscoring how Hormuz risk keeps energy volatility front and center. Iraq Business Angle: With exports and revenues under pressure, Iraq’s immediate play is price and routing—trying to protect cash flow while the wider standoff stays unresolved.

Hormuz Deal Watch: Iran is reviewing a U.S. 14-point proposal mediated by Pakistan that would include a 10-year uranium enrichment ban and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, as markets react to the chance of calmer shipping—though missile and militia demands are still unresolved and Trump keeps a threat of renewed strikes. Iraq Energy Pressure: Iraq resumed gas condensate exports from Basra after a Hormuz-linked shutdown, and is also using steep crude discounts to keep oil moving through the risk zone. Finance Reform: Iraq’s Central Bank is hiring an independent auditor to check which banks met the first phase of banking reforms—an audit that could unlock foreign-currency transfer access for restricted lenders. Power Projects: China’s Shanghai Electric says it will add 1,200 MW to Iraq’s grid by summer via new gas-fired plants. Regional Tensions: Iran has filed a complaint against the U.S. at The Hague over alleged attacks on nuclear sites and sanctions.

US-Iran Talks Under Strain: Iran is reviewing a U.S. 14-point proposal routed through Pakistan, with talk of a deal “sooner rather than later,” but Washington’s sticking points—nuclear limits, missile and militia issues—remain unresolved. Ceasefire Politics: Trump says the ceasefire is on “massive life support” after rejecting Tehran’s latest terms, while markets swing on hopes of Hormuz reopening. Hormuz Pressure on Iraq: With the Strait still a flashpoint, Iraq is cutting crude prices sharply to keep exports moving and is pushing alternative routes, including a Kirkuk-to-Nineveh pipeline expected to be operational within a month. Sanctions and Security Spillover: The UK announced new sanctions on 12 Iran-linked entities tied to “hostile activity,” underscoring how the conflict is widening beyond the Gulf. Iraq Business Signal: Asiacell is expanding its digital ecosystem via a streaming partnership with 1001, betting on legal content demand even as regional instability strains logistics and trade.

US–Iran Talks: Iran is reviewing a US 14-point proposal mediated by Pakistan, with reports pointing to a deal “sooner rather than later.” The plan reportedly includes a 10-year uranium enrichment ban and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran and Washington still clash over missile and regional demands. Market Shock: Oil volatility eased after optimism—Brent slid about 11% toward $98/bbl—yet the ceasefire remains fragile as Trump warns of renewed strikes. Iraq Energy Pressure: With Hormuz risk disrupting exports, Iraq is cutting May crude prices by up to $33/bbl and shifting risk to buyers via contracts that remove force majeure. Finance & Sanctions: The US Treasury is telling banks to flag suspected Iranian money-laundering tied to sanctions evasion, including disguised oil shipments and crypto-linked transfers. Iraq Politics: Iraq’s cabinet talks are spotlighting finance ministry candidates amid Rafidain Bank allegations, while Najaf has switched its Saudi border crossing plan from Al-Uwayqilah to Al-Hakim.

In the past 12 hours, coverage has been dominated by the Iran-war spillover into Iraq’s energy and security environment. Reuters/AP-style reporting highlights how the Strait of Hormuz disruption continues to ripple through shipping and costs, while Iraq’s own supply chain pressures are reflected in reports that DNO has shut down Kurdistan oil production “due to security conditions” tied to the broader Middle East conflict. Separately, multiple items point to intensifying U.S. sanctions enforcement connected to alleged Iraq–Iran oil diversion schemes, including a report that the U.S. Treasury is preparing sanctions against Iraqi Deputy Oil Minister Ali Maarij Al-Bahadly over claims he facilitated Iranian oil sales by diverting and blending Iraqi crude.

A second major thread in the last 12 hours is Iraq’s attempt to harden critical infrastructure against drone and missile threats. Two closely related reports say Iraq is finalizing the purchase of 20 air defense systems from Turkey, with Iraqi officials citing the need for counter-drone protection for oil facilities, diplomatic sites, and other targets amid strikes linked to the U.S.–Israel–Iran confrontation. This aligns with broader “Hormuz” and maritime-security coverage, where the central theme is that uncertainty and risk are not only affecting shipping routes but also raising the urgency of air-defense and infrastructure protection.

On the political side, the most Iraq-specific “continuity” signal comes from analysis of Kurdish leadership strategy toward Baghdad under the new Iraqi prime minister-designate. Coverage notes that Kurdish leaders are seeking stability and influence under the Zaidi government, with KRG leadership aiming for outreach to Baghdad after a period of internal Kurdish political division (KDP vs PUK) and perceived differences in how they navigate Iran-linked dynamics.

Beyond Iraq, the last 12 hours also include broader regional context that helps explain why Iraq is being pulled into the wider conflict’s economic and information pressures—such as reporting on U.S. diplomacy efforts involving Rubio’s Vatican meetings and renewed calls for UN action regarding Hormuz. However, the evidence provided is sparse on any single “new” Iraq policy shift beyond the sanctions and air-defense developments; much of the deeper detail on the war’s trajectory and energy-market mechanics appears in older items rather than in fresh Iraq-focused reporting.