AGP Executive Report

Iraq-UK Anti-Corruption Push: Iraq’s Integrity Commission urged the UK to boost cooperation on recovering stolen assets and tracing corruption proceeds, stressing corruption is now cross-border and needs stronger extradition and legal assistance. Electricity Sector Shake-Up: Iraq’s Electricity Minister replaced the Al-Diwaniyah distribution head and also removed the Rusafa distribution director in Baghdad, part of a wider reshuffle after corruption arrests and asset freezes. Iraq-Türkiye Economic Talks: Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi and Turkish President Erdoğan discussed water management and ways to improve crude oil export flows, including Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline shipments, plus the Development Road corridor and potential gas and agriculture deals. CBI Banking Reform: The Central Bank of Iraq said it won’t change the official exchange rate and completed steps to reintegrate previously restricted banks into US-dollar external transfers, citing banking reform and anti–money laundering controls. Oil Shipping Watch: Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz picked up after Iran said it closed the waterway again over the weekend, with ship-tracking showing LNG and crude movements resuming toward Iraqi and regional ports. Transport Appointments: Iraq’s Transport Minister named an acting ports chief for three months, overseeing the state-owned ports company tied to the Development Road and Grand Al-Faw Port project.

Iraq Banking Reform: Iraq’s PM Ali al-Zaidi stressed the need to keep banking reform moving as the Central Bank of Iraq hands over leadership to Nizar Hussein, with reforms aimed at compliance, governance, transparency, and smoother international transfers. Oil Output Push: Iraq’s Ministry of Oil says it’s working to lift production toward 4.3 million bpd and restore exports, including rehabilitation of southern fields and faster pumping and export operations through southern ports. Kurdistan Jobs Drive: Kurdistan Region tourism investment has created over 20,000 jobs, with 80% filled by locals, supported by dozens of major tourism projects and infrastructure upgrades. Hormuz Trade Shock: Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply after Iran again closed the waterway, with only a handful of vessels transiting on Sunday, while the U.S. said commercial traffic continued. Diplomacy vs Markets: Brent slipped after U.S.-Iran talks in Switzerland, where Iran said it secured waivers for oil and petrochemical exports, easing supply fears. UAE-Iran Shipping Resumes: The UAE agreed to reopen ports to Iranian commercial vessels, helping restart shipments and reduce disruption for merchants using routes that include Iraq’s Umm Qasr. World Cup Disruption Risk: Severe storms and lightning rules could delay or pause the France-Iraq match in Philadelphia, adding uncertainty for fans and logistics.

Central Bank Leadership: Iraq appointed Nizar Hussein as the new governor of the Central Bank of Iraq, replacing Ali Mohsen al-Alaq, as Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi pushed banking reform and modernization. Oil Output Push: The Oil Ministry ordered companies to ramp up production and exports, targeting a return to pre-crisis levels of about 4.2–4.3 million bpd and roughly 3.5 million bpd in exports via southern terminals after Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Northern Exploration Restart: Iraq began drilling its first northern exploration well since 1978, signaling renewed upstream activity in the north. Fiscal Strategy: The government said it will not use external borrowing to plug gaps, instead betting on alternative revenues and new exploration to stabilize finances. Cabinet Timeline: Iraq plans to finalize its new cabinet in early July ahead of PM al-Zaidi’s U.S. trip. Kirkuk-Dubai Connectivity: Kirkuk International Airport launched its first direct flights to Dubai, aiming to boost travel, trade, and tourism. Kurdistan Security for Energy: Baghdad and Erbil moved to provide security guarantees for oil companies in Kurdistan amid ongoing attacks. Landmine Cleanup Pressure: A monitor warned nearly 4,800 sq km of Iraqi land remains contaminated, hurting agriculture and development. Trade Corridors: AD Ports launched integrated logistics linking Khalifa Port to Umm Qasr, strengthening Gulf-to-Iraq and onward routes to Türkiye and Europe.

Iraq’s 2026 Budget Under Pressure: Iraq is facing unprecedented fiscal strain as oil export disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz hit revenues, while parliament has repeatedly failed to pass a budget on time, leaving the government reliant on emergency spending and raising IMF concerns about inflation, external balances, and public finances. World Cup Build-Up in Philadelphia: Iraq’s national team arrived in Philadelphia for a Group I clash with France, with fans welcoming the squad ahead of a must-improve performance after a 4-1 opening loss to Norway. US-Iran Talks and Hormuz Risk: JD Vance and Iranian negotiators are in Switzerland to implement a US-Iran MoU, but Iran’s renewed threats around the Strait of Hormuz keep energy-market uncertainty alive. Anti-Corruption Push: Iraq’s Integrity Commission says it is reviewing government contracts and pursuing corruption cases, following a reshuffle that also touched financial and security agencies. Kurdistan Domestic Violence Update: In Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, psychological abuse remains the most common domestic violence category, with rising marriage and divorce registrations reported for 2024-2025. Oil Market Spillover: India’s refiners boosted Russian crude imports in June and leaned on UAE supplies as Hormuz reopening expectations shaped sourcing decisions.

Oil Exploration Restart: Iraq’s Ministry of Oil has begun drilling its first northern exploration well in Amerli, Saladin—its first since 1978—aiming to boost hydrocarbon reserves and long-term production capacity. Kurdistan Exports & Security: Erbil and Baghdad are coordinating to protect oil fields as Kurdistan’s exports fell sharply after attacks; officials say production and exports should resume as security guarantees and payments to foreign operators are secured. Oil Output Recovery: Iraq expects oil production to return to pre-war levels within 1–2 months as the Strait of Hormuz reopens and damaged operations restart. Oil Market Logistics: Reports say oil companies will resume exports from more Kurdistan fields in coming days/weeks, after prolonged suspensions tied to regional instability. Militias Integration Plan: Experts say Iran-backed armed groups are likely to be integrated into state structures after the US-Iran deal, reflecting Baghdad’s limited control over powerful factions. FX Pressure: The Iraqi dinar’s parallel market rate jumped to around 156,000 IQD per $100 at evening close amid Gulf anxieties. FATF Gray List Return: Iraq’s return to FATF enhanced monitoring raises risks for correspondent banking, compliance costs, investment flows, and further pressure on exchange rates. Trade Corridors: Iraq and Iran-linked rail freight is moving toward Afghanistan via Kermanshah, signaling renewed regional logistics activity.

Iraq’s FATF status: Iraq has been returned to the FATF grey list after gaps in anti-money laundering and counter-terror financing controls, with Baghdad agreeing to cooperate on a corrective action plan. Oil recovery push: Iraq’s Oil Ministry says it aims to restore output to over 3 million barrels per day within two months after the US-Iran ceasefire, as companies restart restoration work. Regional security risk: Reuters reports Iran’s IRGC has set up covert drone cells in Iraq targeting Gulf states, signaling a shift away from traditional militia networks. Trade and logistics: AD Ports Group launched a new integrated shipping link between UAE’s Khalifa Port and Iraq’s Umm Qasr, aiming to speed cargo transit and boost regional trade. Customs and investment ties: Iraq and Erbil are working on a draft agreement to expand ASYCUDA customs systems, while Iraq’s PM is set to visit Washington to deepen economic cooperation. Business environment: Syrian exports to Iraq face tougher competition from Turkish goods amid logistics frictions and weaker Iraqi purchasing power.

Anti-Money Laundering: Iraq was put back on the FATF “grey list” for gaps in fighting money laundering and terrorism financing, with the government citing a new push on risk assessments, better investigations, and controls for virtual asset services. Energy & Trade: With the US-Iran interim deal easing Hormuz tensions, Iraq’s ports in Basra began loading exports again—2.3 million barrels on two tankers—while Iraq said crude exports will ramp up gradually as traffic normalizes. Regional Security: Reuters reports the IRGC created covert Iraqi drone cells outside existing militia chains, raising fresh concerns for Baghdad’s ability to control weapons and protect Gulf ties. Logistics & Connectivity: AD Ports Group launched an integrated weekly logistics link between Khalifa Port and Iraq’s Umm Qasr, aiming to boost container and Ro-Ro flows and strengthen regional supply routes. Policy Watch: Iraq’s PM Ali al-Zaidi is set to visit Washington mid-July, with energy investment and economic cooperation on the front burner while militia disarmament remains harder to settle.

Uzbek-Iraq Trade Push: Uzbekistan and Iraq launched a joint business council in Tashkent, aiming to deepen corporate ties and boost bilateral trade, with early focus on food, electrical engineering, and construction and a MoU signed between the Uzbek Chamber of Commerce and Industry and Iraq’s Economic Council. Regional Security & Business Risk: Reuters reports Iran’s IRGC has formed secret drone-attack cells inside Iraq, bypassing existing militia networks—raising uncertainty for investors and supply chains tied to Gulf stability. Logistics Upgrade for Iraq: AD Ports Group launched integrated logistics linking Khalifa Port (Abu Dhabi) with Umm Qasr Port in Iraq via a direct weekly service, designed to move more containers and Ro-Ro cargo and strengthen regional trade corridors. Sanctions Pressure: The US Treasury expanded sanctions on Hezbollah-aligned Lebanese officials and a Hezbollah-linked business network, including designations tied to fundraising and front companies that reach into Iraq. Oil Market Spillover: Oil prices slipped after the Strait of Hormuz reopened following the US-Iran interim deal, but traders are cautious, watching whether tanker traffic fully normalizes—an important signal for Iraq’s energy-linked economy. Diplomatic Follow-Through Unclear: US Vice President JD Vance postponed Switzerland talks on the Iran agreement, adding uncertainty to the next steps that could affect regional trade and energy flows.

Iraq-U.S. Trade & Customs: Erbil and Baghdad reached a technical draft agreement to implement the UNCTAD ASYCUDA digital customs system at Kurdistan border crossings, aiming to reduce friction that has long delayed unified trade procedures. Sanctions & Finance: The U.S. Treasury imposed new sanctions on Lebanese officials tied to Hezbollah and designated additional people in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Oman accused of funding and running front companies for the group. Pilgrimage Logistics: Iraq finalized transport plans for Ashura and Arbaeen, with Iraqi Republic Railways set to run regular and dedicated train services linking southern provinces, Baghdad, Karbala and Najaf corridors. Oil & Shipping Watch: With the Strait of Hormuz reopening after the U.S.-Iran interim deal, U.S. forces lifted a blockade on Iranian ports, while shipping activity remains cautious and energy-market uncertainty continues. Regional Business Angle: Iraq’s wider push to secure energy and trade routes is back in focus as Hormuz disruption and sanctions dynamics keep affecting costs and exports. Business-Adjacent Global Risk: Reuters reported a sharp rise in deaths in U.S. immigration detention under Trump, adding to scrutiny of enforcement systems that can disrupt labor and mobility.

Iraq Energy Security: Iraq says it’s moving ahead with a strategic floating LNG project at Khor Al-Zubair, using imported gas to power plants during peak demand and stabilize the grid, with American firms expected to play a role. Oil Market Shockwatch: The World Bank warns Iraq’s economy is highly exposed to commodity swings, with oil-driven revenues making fiscal stability vulnerable as growth is projected to weaken further. Central Bank Watch: Iraq’s foreign reserves fell again in Q2 2026, dropping to about $90.8bn by May 28, continuing a downward trend. Trade & Refining Pressure: Iraq’s oil product exports dropped in Q1 2026, reflecting ongoing reliance on imports for some refined fuels despite refinery expansion plans. Regional Deal Spillover: As the US-Iran interim framework moves toward a June 19 signing and Hormuz reopening, Goldman Sachs expects Hormuz flows to recover only to around 70% of pre-war levels—meaning Iraq and other Gulf producers may still face supply and pricing volatility.

Iraq-US Security Talks: Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al Zaidi met US envoy Tom Barrack in Baghdad as Washington presses for disarmament of Iranian-backed militias ahead of a planned July visit to the White House, with both sides stressing state control over weapons. Oil & Shipping Outlook: The US-Iran interim accord is set to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after nearly four months, but analysts warn oil and LNG flows may take months to normalize—an issue for Iraq’s export economics and fuel costs. Iraq Dollar Watch: Iraq’s parallel market exchange rates edged up on June 17, reflecting ongoing FX pressure amid regional uncertainty. Kurdistan & Regional Risk: A Kurdish Iranian opposition group said it was hit by an Iranian drone attack, underscoring that even with US-Iran talks, cross-border security threats remain. Energy Investment Signals: US officials praised Iraq’s steps with Chevron on West Qurna-2 and Nasiriyah development, while Turkey’s request to renew an Iraq oil pipeline deal remains a sticking point. Healthcare Recognition: Apex Health was named a Holistic Role Model by the Arab Hospitals Federation, including awards for Iraq facilities.

Iraq-US diplomacy: Iraq’s prime minister is set to visit Washington in mid-July as US envoy Tom Barrack meets Baghdad and pushes a new direction in bilateral ties, with focus on state control and disarming militia groups. Energy & trade: A US-Iran peace framework is expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but analysts warn oil and gas flows could take weeks or months to normalize—important for Iraq’s oil-dependent economy. Sanctions & finance: Reuters reports the MoU includes immediate oil export waivers, a $300bn private investment fund, and a pathway to access more than $100bn in frozen Iranian assets—raising questions about knock-on effects for regional markets and shipping costs. Local business: SOUEAST opened its first Iraq mall showroom in Baghdad (Iraq Mall), offering sales services, financing and test drives, with more flagship stores planned for Erbil, Najaf and Duhok. Corporate performance: Nissan Middle East says FY2025 closed as its most profitable year on record, with regional sales up 3% year-on-year. Security & risk: CNN reports Israel deployed special forces to Azerbaijan, UAE, Iraq and Somaliland during the Iran conflict, while Iraq remains under heightened regional tension.

Iraq-Turkey Energy Talks: Iraq has formally asked Türkiye to extend the Kirkuk–Ceyhan crude pipeline deal by one year as the current agreement nears expiry on July 27, aiming to avoid an export disruption while negotiations continue on a wider energy framework. US-Iraq Security Push: US envoy Tom Barrack met Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi in Baghdad, urging the Iraqi government to ensure the “complete disarmament and disbandment” of militias outside state control, with disarmament a key sticking point in Washington–Baghdad relations. World Bank/IFC Stance on Airport PPP: Despite Iraq’s abrupt cancellation of a major Baghdad airport overhaul contract amid corruption allegations, the World Bank’s IFC says it remains committed to supporting Iraq’s economic development and PPP engagement. Oil Market Reality Check: Even with hopes for Strait of Hormuz reopening after a US-Iran framework, analysts warn oil and gas recovery could take months, keeping pressure on prices and regional supply chains. Regional Business Disruption: The wider Middle East energy shock continues to ripple into costs and logistics, with shipping traffic still far below pre-war levels and uncertainty lingering for exporters and importers.

US-Iran détente and Hormuz reopening: Oil markets reacted to a US-Iran framework deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump saying the waterway would be “completely open” from Friday and oil prices sliding to just above $80/bbl; still, analysts warn flows won’t normalize overnight as hundreds of tankers remain stuck and Gulf producers need time to ramp up. Iraq-US security talks: Iraq’s PM Ali al-Zaidi met US envoy Tom Barrack in Baghdad to press disarmament of armed groups and strengthen US-Iraq ties ahead of al-Zaidi’s planned visit to Washington. Iraq arbitration win: Iraq cleared an $800m obligation after winning an international arbitration case, a boost for fiscal stability. Energy corridor push: A new initiative aims to reroute Gulf energy flows via Syria and Turkey (through Iraq and Jordan) to reduce reliance on Hormuz. Trade disruption from the crisis: Gulf-linked imports fell sharply in April, with Iraq’s shipments effectively halted during the Hormuz shutdown. Business/industry note: Indian firms are preparing to ramp up Middle East exports and production after the peace deal, expecting freight costs to ease. Other Iraq-linked item: Baghdad and Erbil coordinated steps to protect oil exports and facilities amid ongoing regional risks.

US-Iran détente and Hormuz reopening: Iraq welcomed the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, hoping it boosts regional stability and reopens the Strait of Hormuz, but analysts warn oil and gas flows won’t normalize overnight as ships, insurers and refineries take time to restart. Energy market impact: Global oil prices slid after the deal, yet experts say fuel prices and supply recovery could take months even if the strait is fully open. Iraq diplomacy: US Special Envoy Tom Barrack arrived in Iraq for meetings, signaling Washington’s push for a more interconnected approach across Iraq, Syria and Turkey. Iraq legal win: Iraq’s justice ministry said it won an ICSID arbitration brought by Orange over its Korek Telecom stake, avoiding about $800m in compensation claims (with Orange ordered to pay $10m in fees). Regional security focus: Jordan’s PM stressed that Iraq’s security is central to Jordan’s stability, citing concerns over armed groups operating from Iraqi territory. Business/ops note: Iraq also sought a one-year extension for the Kirkuk–Ceyhan oil pipeline deal, as regional turmoil continues to weigh on the economy.

Strait of Hormuz Deal, Iraq in the Crosshairs: The US and Iran announced an interim peace framework to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with a formal signing in Geneva on June 19 and a 60-day ceasefire roadmap. Energy Shock for Iraq: Even with reopening, experts warn oil and fuel markets won’t normalize quickly—ships stranded for months, insurance and security concerns, and slow shipping/refining mean relief could take months. Iraq Credit Risk: S&P affirmed Iraq’s sovereign rating at B-/B and removed the negative watch, but kept a negative outlook, citing conflict-driven export disruptions via Hormuz and possible infrastructure damage. Oil Export Logistics: Iraq asked Turkey to extend the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline deal by at least a year as the current agreement nears expiry on July 27. Regional Trade Hit: Iraq-linked disruption is part of a wider regional slowdown, with reports of basmati rice and tea shipments to West Asia grinding to a halt as routes stall. Diplomacy Watch: Iran’s foreign minister urged Turkey, Iraq and Egypt to push for de-escalation in Lebanon and stressed US responsibility for implementing the agreement.